How many strong earthquakes will there be tomorrow?

In this note, we study the distribution of earthquake numbers in both worldwide and regional catalogs: Global Centroid Moment Tensor catalog, from 1980 to 2019 for magnitudes Mw 5. 5+ 6.5+ first case, Italian instrumental catalog 1960 2021 4.0+ 5.5+ second case. A subset global is also used Japanese region. We will focus our attention on short-term time windows 1, 7, 30 days, which have been poorly explored previous studies. model using two discrete probability distributions, i.e., Poisson Negative Binomial. Using classical chi-squared statistical test, found that distribution, widely seismological studies, always rejected when tested against observations, while Binomial cannot be disproved all catalog. However, if consider or regions, it proven performs better than test. When instead compared performances distributions Akaike Information Criterion, one. The results suggest largely ignored should replace modeling number earthquakes.